Categories
The Benchmark

The playing field vs. the scoreboard

May 13, 2024


59 years worth of investing wisdom

Dear Reader,

Warren Buffett has been in the markets longer than many investors have been alive.

In 1965, his Buffett Partnership Ltd. company acquired textile manufacturing firm, Berkshire Hathaway, and assumed its name as it transformed into a diversified holding company.

This diversified holding company is now among the S&P 500’s top 10 listings, and among the largest private employers in the United States. It’s class A shares have the highest public company per-share value on the planet.

Buffett’s investing and business success is objectively impressive.

Rather than throwing lavish parties in luxury mansions, or parading between red carpet events in bespoke supercars or megayachts, Warren keeps his lifestyle modest, preferring to let his investments — and their near six-decades of outperforming the S&P 500 by nearly 10% a year — do the talking.

But, the impressive performance charts and corporate filings aren’t the only way to observe Buffett’s brilliance.

Six decades of shareholder letters

When Buffett took control of Berkshire Hathaway in ’65, he started writing letters to the company’s shareholders.

Initially ‘signed off’ by other figures in the business, Buffett eventually started publishing in his own name, building a (so far) near six-decade body of writing covering a huge range of markets, events and ideas in his now-signature friendly, casual tone.

You can read the 1965 letter (pictured below) here.


Wall Street Journal writer, Karen Langley, recently started with the letter above and went all the way — reading every single shareholder letter Warren has ever written.

Here’s six of the best excerpts:

Six of Buffett’s best investing ideas

1: Fear & greed as ‘super-contagious diseases‘ — 1987

Occasional outbreaks of those two super-contagious diseases, fear and greed, will forever occur in the investment community. The timing of these epidemics will be unpredictable.

‘And the market aberrations produced by them will be equally unpredictable, both as to duration and degree. Therefore, we never try to anticipate the arrival or departure of either disease.

‘Our goal is more modest: we simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful.


2: Watch the playing field, not the scoreboard — 1992

It’s true, of course, that, in the long run, the scoreboard for investment decisions is market price. But prices will be determined by future earnings.

‘In investing, just as in baseball, to put runs on the scoreboard one must watch the playing field, not the scoreboard.


3: A ‘
really long-term example‘ — 2006

It’s been an easy matter for Berkshire and other owners of American equities to prosper over the years.

‘Between December 31, 1899, and December 31, 1999, to give a really long-term example, the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497…. This huge rise came about for a simple reason: Over the century American businesses did extraordinarily well and investors rode the wave of their prosperity,

4: The power of price on perspective — 2012

The first law of capital allocation — whether the money is slated for acquisitions or share repurchases — is that what is smart at one price is dumb at another.


5: Bubbles, wisdom & folly — 2012

Over the past 15 years, both Internet stocks and houses have demonstrated the extraordinary excesses that can be created by combining an initially sensible thesis with well-publicized rising prices.

‘In these bubbles, an army of originally skeptical investors succumbed to the ‘proof’ delivered by the market, and the pool of buyers — for a time — expanded sufficiently to keep the bandwagon rolling.

‘But bubbles blown large enough inevitably pop. And then the old proverb is confirmed once again: ‘
What the wise man does in the beginning, the fool does in the end‘.


6: What to do when the skies rain gold — 2017

Charlie and I have no magic plan to add earnings except to dream big and to be prepared mentally and financially to act fast when opportunities present themselves.

Every decade or so, dark clouds will fill the economic skies, and they will briefly rain gold.

When downpours of that sort occur, it’s imperative that we rush outdoors carrying washtubs, not teaspoons.’


‘The Architect of Berkshire Hathaway’

That last excerpt refers, of course, to the late Charlie Munger, vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, who passed away in 2023.

Buffett referred to Munger as ‘The Architect of Berkshire Hathaway’, and credited him with shaping not just the company, but Buffett’s whole way of viewing business and the markets.

Berkshire Hathaway reported a profit of $96.2 billion for 2023. The company ended the year with a record $167.6 billion in cash, prompting plenty of speculation from commentators on what, if anything, Buffett’s now-colossal firm might do with it.

For context, $167.6 billion is more than enough to buy Nike, Morgan Stanley, Boeing, BlackRock, Airbnb, or Sony, among other huge firms.

Quote of the week

In my whole life, I have known no wise people… who didn’t read all the time.

You’d be amazed at how much Warren reads, at how much I read.

My children laugh at me. They think I’m a book with a couple of legs sticking out.

— Charlie Munger

That’s it for this week’s The Benchmark email.

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Invest in knowledge,

Thom
Editor, The Benchmark

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All information contained in The Benchmark and on navexa.io is for education and informational purposes only. It is not intended as a substitute for professional financial or tax advice. The Benchmark and any contributors to The Benchmark are not financial professionals, and are not aware of your personal financial circumstances.

Categories
The Benchmark

re: predicting the stock market

May 6, 2024


Ray Dalio, debt cycles,
and the economic machine

Dear Reader,

What if you never had to worry about unforeseen financial events again?

What if you had a calendar that showed you what economies and markets were doing years in advance?

How valuable would that knowledge be?

This is what this week’s The Benchmark is about.

About 10 years ago, I stumbled upon Ray Dalio’s How The Economic Machine Works video.

It did for me in 30 minutes what no economics teacher or other ostensibly financially savvy person I’d met had managed:

Explain, in simple terms, what the economy is, how it behaves, and why.

Dalio’s thesis in brief:

Economies go through cycles of expansion and contraction.

The accumulation and deleveraging of debt drives this cycle.

This cycle consists of three main stages:

  1. Credit expansion
  2. Debt bubble
  3. Deleveraging

I’ll explain more after I explain what gives Ray Dalio the authority to explain such a seemingly complex thing as the economy in such simple terms.


Benchmark beater: Ray Dalio

From mowing lawns to raking in billions

Ray Dalio first started making money as a kid mowing lawns in New York.

A 2022 estimate valued his personal wealth at US$15.7 billion.

What happened in between?

Ray got good at understanding money and markets.

In 1974, unhappy with his employer (a trading firm), he got drunk at the Christmas party and punched his boss in the face.

After the firm let him go, some of its top clients chose to continue letting Ray manage their money.

The following year, he started Bridgewater Associates from his two-bedroom apartment.

The firm launched multiple funds in the course of becoming the largest hedge fund firm on the planet.

Some of the biggest entities in the world parked their money with Bridgewater.

This chart gives you an idea why:


Source: Wikipedia

We all like to marvel at lines that go up and to the right.

But what’s most interesting about this one — the Bridgewater Pure Alpha 1 fund’s performance between 1991 and 2015 — is how it ends up pretty much where the S&P500 does…

Without the massive falls in 2000 and 2008.

While stocks were tumbling amid the two bloodbaths…

Ray Dalio’s investors were making money.

That’s what qualifies this man to lecture the rest of us on what the economy is, how it behaves, and why.


Long-term productivity growth, with the short and long-term debt cycles overlaid.

As you’ll see in the video, there’s three key factors you need to understand:

Productivity Growth: Over time, we become more productive and raise our living standards.

Short-Term Debt Cycle: At the consumer level, our borrowing and deleveraging generally moves in ~6-year cycles.

Long-Term Debt Cycle: At the broader economic level, society’s borrowing and deleveraging generally happens in ~75-year cycles.

According to Ray, both the 1929 ‘Great Depression’ and the 2008 ‘Great Recession’ both marked the beginning of ‘deleveraging’ phases on the long-term debt cycle.

Understanding this fundamental economic truth was what allowed Bridgewater’s Pure Alpha 1 to effectively dodge the 2008 crash.

If the market is really this easy
to predict, where are we now?

Ray Dalio is not only one of the wealthiest people on the planet, financially speaking.

He’s also — I would argue — one of the wealthiest in terms of his knowledge and understanding of the financial world.

(And, as we like to remind you in The Benchmark, knowledge pays the best interest.)

Ray is about as on the money as one can get about the fundamental nature of the economic world we live in.

Here are some comments he made in 2023:

In my opinion the tightening that began in March 2022 ended the last paradigm in which central banks gave away money and credit essentially for free, which was great for the borrower-debtors.

We are now in a new paradigm in which central banks will strive to achieve balance, in which real interest rates will be high enough and money and credit will be tight enough to satisfy lender-creditors without interest rates being too high and money and credit being too tight for borrower-debtors.’

Dalio: 2024 a ‘pivotal year’

Ray’s January Principled Perspectives newsletter is a deep dive (an actual deep dive, not just another blog or email claiming to be) into how he sees these economic cycles playing out in the world.

It’s well worth a read, if you have the time and intellectual energy to absorb some very big ideas.

Here’s why:

2024 will almost certainly be a pivotal year in a number of ways— for example, we will find out whether the existing democratic order in the US will or won’t hold up well, and whether or not the world’s international conflicts will be contained.

‘Of course, like all years, 2024 and the events in it will be just small parts of the long string of years and events that make the Big Cycle arc of history, which is what is most important to pay attention to
.’

If you’ve still not checked it out, watch How The Economic Machine Works now.

That’s it for this week’s The Benchmark email.

Forward this to anyone you know who needs to read it.

And, if one of our awesome subscribers has forwarded it to you…

Subscribe here for weekly emails with ideas, stories and content about long-term, high-performance investing!

Invest in knowledge,

Thom
Editor, The Benchmark

Unsubscribe · Preferences

All information contained in The Benchmark and on navexa.io is for education and informational purposes only. It is not intended as a substitute for professional financial or tax advice. The Benchmark and any contributors to The Benchmark are not financial professionals, and are not aware of your personal financial circumstances.